Comments for Carbon Commentary http://www.carboncommentary.com A critical appraisal of issues in the move to a low-carbon economy Fri, 24 May 2013 00:24:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Comment on The Green Deal: failure is almost guaranteed by Alan cox DEA/GDA http://www.carboncommentary.com/2011/12/12/2203/comment-page-1#comment-27279 Alan cox DEA/GDA Fri, 24 May 2013 00:24:53 +0000 http://www.carboncommentary.com/?p=2203#comment-27279 As a DEA/GDA I also agree with most comments about the scheme not doing very well. In fact since its start up we have seemed to become a replacement boiler company for people on benefits. Some of whom get it for free. Although depending on the type and area of the property this is not always the case. Many visits and assessments end up with me saying to the customer, benefits or not, that there isn't sufficient funding to cover the whole cost and an upfront cost would be required to take up the installation. For example, a 3 bedroom semi detached house in a suburban area for someone on benefits, with cavity wall insulation and sufficient loft insulation already installed, would most likely get on average £1400 - £1600 funding for a replacement boiler if required. The install cost would be between £2300 - £2500. An obvious shortfall in funds. With most customers applying, simply because they are on benefits and can't afford the cost of it in the first place, they are obviously unable to meet the shortfall costs and get very annoyed because they were under the impression it would be free through ECO funding. Not the case. Henceforth, a lost job. Needless to say that a similar pattern is emerging in the able to pay market as well. For example, same area as before but solid walls this time. This time through a green deal plan. For solid wall insulation, whether internal or external, this property would possibly get around £2000 - £2500 ECO funding towards the cost, depending on the improvements already in place. Considering the square meterage is approximately 80 metres, the total cost could be in the region of £12000. Now because of the Golden Rule you can only get to a certain amount of green deal fund. Again depending which measure(s) are being taken up n the plan. Now £12000 minus possibly £4000 green deal fund(loan) leaves us £8000. Take off your £2500 ECO funding, which is given to you at no cost, to leave a total of £5500. This is what is paid upfront before install. As you will appreciate, not many average earning households can afford this upfront and decline the plan. Henceforth, another lost job. Unless more funding is released, and quick, there will be many more jobs lost and companies will go under before they've got started. I hope I'm wrong because its the work I do as an assessor. I regrettably agree with others that its doomed for failure, unless a re-think of the golden rule or an input of major ECO funding is applied!!!! As a DEA/GDA I also agree with most comments about the scheme not doing very well.
In fact since its start up we have seemed to become a replacement boiler company for people on benefits. Some of whom get it for free. Although depending on the type and area of the property this is not always the case.
Many visits and assessments end up with me saying to the customer, benefits or not, that there isn’t sufficient funding to cover the whole cost and an upfront cost would be required to take up the installation.
For example, a 3 bedroom semi detached house in a suburban area for someone on benefits, with cavity wall insulation and sufficient loft insulation already installed, would most likely get on average £1400 – £1600 funding for a replacement boiler if required. The install cost would be between £2300 – £2500. An obvious shortfall in funds.
With most customers applying, simply because they are on benefits and can’t afford the cost of it in the first place, they are obviously unable to meet the shortfall costs and get very annoyed because they were under the impression it would be free through ECO funding.

Not the case. Henceforth, a lost job.
Needless to say that a similar pattern is emerging in the able to pay market as well.
For example, same area as before but solid walls this time. This time through a green deal plan.
For solid wall insulation, whether internal or external, this property would possibly get around £2000 – £2500 ECO funding towards the cost, depending on the improvements already in place.
Considering the square meterage is approximately 80 metres, the total cost could be in the region of £12000.
Now because of the Golden Rule you can only get to a certain amount of green deal fund. Again depending which measure(s) are being taken up n the plan.
Now £12000 minus possibly £4000 green deal fund(loan) leaves us £8000.
Take off your £2500 ECO funding, which is given to you at no cost, to leave a total of £5500.
This is what is paid upfront before install.
As you will appreciate, not many average earning households can afford this upfront and decline the plan.
Henceforth, another lost job.
Unless more funding is released, and quick, there will be many more jobs lost and companies will go under before they’ve got started.
I hope I’m wrong because its the work I do as an assessor.
I regrettably agree with others that its doomed for failure, unless a re-think of the golden rule or an input of major ECO funding is applied!!!!

]]> Comment on Solar is now cheaper than nuclear. Even in the UK. by Chris Goodall http://www.carboncommentary.com/2013/05/16/3064/comment-page-1#comment-27272 Chris Goodall Thu, 23 May 2013 20:50:40 +0000 http://www.carboncommentary.com/?p=3064#comment-27272 Dear Alex, The point I was making that big solar farms - 10s of MW, not the 4-10 kW you mention - are now being built in increasing numbers in the UK for revenues below the proposed support levels for the EPR. The market, rightly or wrongly, is saying that PV (at scale) is cheaper than the over-engineered and complex EPR. DECC and other sources are simply out-of-date on this. PV prices in the UK have plummeted in the last six months to a year (but may rise again as a consequence of anti-dumping duties). Your figures from Germany were, in my opinion, also not current. The EPR is reportedly budgeted at £14bn for the two units in Somerset. This works out at about £4.5k a kilowatt. Solar is 20% of this. Solar yields in the South West of the UK are about 12% of rated capacity. So, yes, solar's capital cost is more per lifetime kWh but it can be built in six months, not seven years and has no fuel costs or waste problems. Chris Dear Alex,

The point I was making that big solar farms – 10s of MW, not the 4-10 kW you mention – are now being built in increasing numbers in the UK for revenues below the proposed support levels for the EPR. The market, rightly or wrongly, is saying that PV (at scale) is cheaper than the over-engineered and complex EPR.

DECC and other sources are simply out-of-date on this. PV prices in the UK have plummeted in the last six months to a year (but may rise again as a consequence of anti-dumping duties). Your figures from Germany were, in my opinion, also not current.

The EPR is reportedly budgeted at £14bn for the two units in Somerset. This works out at about £4.5k a kilowatt. Solar is 20% of this. Solar yields in the South West of the UK are about 12% of rated capacity. So, yes, solar’s capital cost is more per lifetime kWh but it can be built in six months, not seven years and has no fuel costs or waste problems.

Chris

]]> Comment on Solar is now cheaper than nuclear. Even in the UK. by Alex Trembath http://www.carboncommentary.com/2013/05/16/3064/comment-page-1#comment-27269 Alex Trembath Thu, 23 May 2013 18:46:36 +0000 http://www.carboncommentary.com/?p=3064#comment-27269 Chris, Thanks for replying to our analysis. I'd first refer you to a comment I left at the Energy Collective comparing the cost of the EPR to German solar panels installed in 2016 — the EPR is still less costly on a $/kWh basis, and this is before considering difficulties arising in intermittency, integration, and forced curtailment: http://theenergycollective.com/?q=node%2F224666#comment-61976 I'd also point you towards DECC's figures on solar PV. According to DECC, the capex on solar PV installations between 4-10kW range from £2139-2332/kW, or £2.1-2.3 million per MW. DECC also pegs the current LCOE of solar at between £110-160/MWh, and expects a solar plant built in 2018 to have an LCOE over £120/MWh. Solar has certainly come down in costs, but we need to look at the unsubsidized capital cost of plants across entire countries. Chris,

Thanks for replying to our analysis. I’d first refer you to a comment I left at the Energy Collective comparing the cost of the EPR to German solar panels installed in 2016 — the EPR is still less costly on a $/kWh basis, and this is before considering difficulties arising in intermittency, integration, and forced curtailment: http://theenergycollective.com/?q=node%2F224666#comment-61976

I’d also point you towards DECC’s figures on solar PV. According to DECC, the capex on solar PV installations between 4-10kW range from £2139-2332/kW, or £2.1-2.3 million per MW. DECC also pegs the current LCOE of solar at between £110-160/MWh, and expects a solar plant built in 2018 to have an LCOE over £120/MWh.

Solar has certainly come down in costs, but we need to look at the unsubsidized capital cost of plants across entire countries.

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