Image source: Hemmy.net.

The Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed has become the most visible developing country spokesperson on climate change. Nasheed has continued to press for radical reductions in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, most recently arguing for a 350 parts per million target in a meeting with activist and author Bill McKibben in Copenhagen.

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The President has also made a more unusual case – saying that the developing world should not be seduced into thinking that use of fossil fuel energy was the right pathway to economic development. He argues that the rational state should now try to avoid building its energy infrastructure around carbon-based sources. Not only is it likely that the world will eventually put severe restrictions on fossil fuel use, including high levels of carbon taxes, it is also likely that prices will tend to increase as supplies, particularly of oil, tighten. At some stage in the next generation, oil and gas will probably become extremely expensive. So a country like the Maldives would be wrong to try to build an energy infrastructure reliant on plentiful and cheap hydrocarbons. Instead, he argues, the right strategy is to find appropriate renewable resources and exploit them locally. The Maldives has plentiful solar energy and considerable wind. Rather than develop centralised coal power stations, is it not more sensible to attract investment into exploiting local natural resources? It will be necessary eventually to wean countries off fossil energy, so why put billions into infrastructure that may be useless in ten or twenty years?

One question immediately arises. Do most developing countries have access to sufficient renewable energy sources? A quick look demonstrates that most areas of the world have plentiful resources for energy transformation. The attached presentation (available for download in PowerPoint or PDF) looks quickly at where the main resources are of geothermal, wind, solar, biomass, and wave energy. It is not a piece of analysis, it just tries to show that most of the poorer parts of the world have plentiful resources of natural energy sources. There are exceptions: Afghanistan doesn’t have any obvious candidates for much of its landmass. But, generally speaking, the bottom 3 billion are better served for renewable energy than the top half of the world’s population.

Full text of Mohamed Nasheed’s speech as given at Klimaforum, 14 December 2009 (copied from Treehugger.com):

Mr McKibben, fellow environmentalists, ladies and gentlemen,

Four years ago myself, and many fellow activists, sat in solitary confinement in Maldivian prison cells. We sat in those jail cells not because we had committed any wrong. We sat in those cells because we had deliberately broken the unjust laws of dictatorship. We had spoken out for a cause in which we believed. That cause was freedom and democracy.

There were times, sitting in that prison, when I felt more alone than you can imagine. There were times when I started to believe the doubters, who said the Maldives would never become free. Sometimes it felt like the doubters were right. The dictatorship had the guns, bombs and tanks. We had no weapons other than the power of our words, and the moral clarity of our cause. Many democracy activists like us had vanished, forgotten by history, their struggle a failure.

But, in spite of the odds, we refused to give up hope. We refused to listen to the voices of doubt and discouragement. We refused to be swayed by those who could not see that change was on the way. And we were right to stand up for what we believed.

We won our battle for democracy in the Maldives. I stand before you today as the first democratically elected President in the history of my country.

The path to democracy in the Maldives was not straight-forward. It was bumpy and full of turns. But we were determined that no matter how difficult the terrain, we would reach the end of the road. And we succeeded in our cause.

Four years later and a continent away, we meet here to confront another seemingly impossible task. We are here to save our planet from the silent, patient and invisible enemy that is climate change.

And just as there were doubters in the Maldives, so there are doubters in Copenhagen. There are those who tell us that solving climate change is impossible. There are those who tell us taking radical action is too difficult. There are those who tell us to give up hope.

Well, I am here to tell you that we refuse to give up hope. We refuse to be quiet. We refuse to believe that a better world isn’t possible.

I have three words to say to the doubters and deniers. Three words with which to win this battle. Just three words are all I need. You may already have heard them. Three – Five – Oh. Three – Five – Oh.

Three – Five – Oh, saves the coral reefs. Three – Five – Oh, keeps the Arctic frozen. Three – Five – Oh, ensures my country survives. Three – Five – Oh, makes a better world possible.

I am here to tell you that down the road in the Bella Center the Maldives team is fighting to keep Three – Five – Oh in the negotiating text.

They need all the help they can get from you. Please keep supporting them.

And the good news is that we are now part of a growing bloc of nations, all committed to keeping Three – Five – Oh as the central guiding goal of our global survival plan.

These nations need your help and support too.

I am not a scientist, but I know that one of the laws of physics, is that you cannot negotiate with the laws of physics. Three – Five – Oh is a law of atmospheric physics. You cannot cut a deal with Mother Nature. And we don’t intend to try.

This is why, in March, the Maldives announced plans to become the first carbon neutral country in the world. We intend to become carbon neutral in ten years. We will switch from oil to 100% renewable energy. And we will offset aviation pollution, until a way can be found to decarbonise air transport too.

For us, going carbon neutral is not just the right thing to do. We believe it is also in our economic self-interest. Countries that have the foresight to green their economies today, will be the winners of tomorrow. These pioneering countries will free themselves from the unpredictable price of foreign oil. They will capitalize on the new, green economy of the future. And they will enhance their moral standing, giving them greater political influence on the world stage. In the Maldives, we have relinquished our claim to high-carbon growth.

After all, it is not carbon we want, but development. It is not coal we want, but electricity. It is not oil we want, but transport. Low-carbon technologies now exist, to deliver all the goods and services we need. Let us make the goal of using them.

Let us make the goal of reaching that all-important number: three – five – oh.

We believe that if the Maldives can become carbon neutral; richer, larger countries can follow. But if there is one thing I know about politicians, it’s that they won’t act until their electorates act first. This is where you come in.

History shows us the power of peaceful protest. From the civil rights movement, to Gandhi’s Quit India campaign; non-violent protest can create change. Protest worked in the struggle for democracy in the Maldives. And on 24 October, we saw how protests across the world put Three – Five – Oh firmly on the Copenhagen agenda.

My message to you is to continue the protests. Continue after Copenhagen. Continue despite the odds. And eventually, together, we will reach that crucial number: Three – five – oh.

In all political agreements, you have to be prepared to negotiate. You have to be prepared to compromise; to give and take. That is the nature of politics. But physics isn’t politics. On climate change, there are things on which we cannot negotiate. There are scientific bottom lines that we have to respect. We know what the laws of physics say. And I think you know too.

The most important number in the world. The most important number you’ll ever hear. The most important number you’ll ever say. These three words: Three – five – oh. (Three – five – oh) (Three – five – oh).

Full disclosure: Chris Goodall assists Mark Lynas in his work for the Republic of Maldives on climate change issues.

The Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed stands in the sea off Kurumba to show the threat the islands face. Photograph: Chiara Goia. Source: Guardian.

Plans for a new windfarm are set to make the Maldives the country with the highest proportion of renewable power in the world.

The 30-turbine proposed windfarm, close to the capital Malé, will deliver 75 megawatts of electricity at full capacity, enough to provide electricity for the whole of the capital, the international airport and the surrounding resorts. Excess power will be used to run desalination plants that will produce bottled drinking water from the sea.

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If built, the project will mean that per head of population, the Maldives will be getting about six times more electricity from wind than the UK. Mark Lynas, the British climate change expert who helped the Maldives develop its draft programme for carbon neutrality, welcomed the windfarm proposal, saying that it was an important signal to the rest of the world. “If a middle-income country can cut its emissions by a quarter through standard commercial partnerships, the rich world has little excuse for saying that carbon reductions are too expensive.”

The Maldives government is taking the lead on climate change mitigation in an effort to push larger states into taking more determined action. Last month, President Mohamed Nasheed held a cabinet meeting under-water to highlight the plight of the low-lying island nation as the sea-level rises. In March, he announced a 10-year plan to reduce its use of fossil fuels to zero.

One part of this is a partnership announced in September with the British biochar company Carbon Gold to improve the country’s soils by adding charcoal produced from coconut shells and other woody waste materials. The Japanese government is also giving $10m to provide solar panels to power schools and government buildings in Malé. And Nasheed will be hosting a planning meeting for a group of countries most vulnerable to climate change in the run-up to the UN climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December.

The $200m windfarm project is being financed and built by Falcon Energy and will use turbines from the American company GE, one of the world leaders in wind energy. The project will start with a year-long analysis of wind conditions to assess the best arrangement for the turbines. It will then take up to two years to build. Hassan Zahir, chairman of the local electricity company, STELCO, said that the windfarm represented an important step in the country’s move towards a carbon-neutral society.

A new gas turbine power station will provide back-up power when conditions are too calm for wind generation. The Maldives has moderate but reliable winds that blow for most of the year, making this source of power a good choice for the country.

Once built, the windfarm and the gas generator will replace old and inefficient diesel generators on which the Maldives has been completely reliant. The project is likely to provide about 40% of the country’s electricity and reduce its overall carbon footprint by about a quarter. When completed, the windfarm should provide this small island state with the largest percentage of electricity sourced from renewable source of any country in the world. Another major windfarm announcement is expected within the next few months.



This article was originally published in the Guardian on Monday 2 November 2009.

The Maldives. Image source: Primetravels.com.

The Maldives will be the first country to be overwhelmed by the effect of climate change. The republic is a collection of coral atolls with maximum heights of one or two metres above sea level. Climate change is increasing worldwide sea levels and the atolls will probably go underwater by the end of the century.

The 300,000-400,000 people who live on the Maldives are not responsible for global warming. Their emissions per head (even including aviation fuels for incoming international tourism) are less than a seventh of typical European levels.

Many countries have set ambitious targets for the reduction of carbon emissions. The government of the Maldives seeks to encourage this trend by going one step further with a plan for near carbon neutrality within ten years.

This is an immensely challenging target. Chris Goodall (author of this blog) and Mark Lynas, the prize-winning climate change author, were asked to provide a short outline of how it might be achieved and what it might cost.[1]

In the rest of this note, we show our calculations. We will be the first to acknowledge that this work is incomplete. Although it was tempting to conduct fieldwork in some of the most attractive island resorts, we did our analysis using publicly available information and with help from officials attached to the Maldives government.

Our work shows that near neutrality is possible, but expensive. It will take at least $1.1bn for this small island state. The Maldives imports almost all its fuels in the form of refined oil products. Rates of financial return to the investment therefore depend largely on the price of oil. If expectations of future oil prices exceed $100 a barrel, we judge that the plan is sufficiently attractive to be financeable by international institutions such as the World Bank.

Comments on this work will be very gratefully received.

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The Maldives’ use of fossil fuel
The state has no natural resources other than fish and some of the finest locations for luxury resorts in the world. Fuels, almost entirely in the form of refined oil products, are all imported. There are two principal uses for these fuels – aviation and electricity generation. Smaller amounts are consumed as petrol for cars, diesel for boats, and kerosene for cooking stoves.

The CIA yearly factbook estimates that daily imports of oil products are equivalent to about 5,490 barrels. Although the energy value of oil products varies, this work has assumed that the fuels all provide about 1,700 kilowatt hours of energy. (Please note that the processes of conversion of fossil fuels to electricity are never 100% efficient, so the usable power delivered to consumers will be much less than the energy value of the oil.)

Small volumes of other refined products such as lubricants and bitumen are also imported. Our assessment of the disposition of oil imports is shown in the following diagram.

The Maldives
The country consists of a large number of small islands grouped into atolls. About 250 islands are inhabited. The resident population, including migrant workers, is about 360,000. 600,000 international tourists visit these beautiful islands every year. They are principally from the UK, Italy, Japan, and other remote countries.

About a third of the resident population lives in Male, the country’s capital. Some of the most important tourist islands are close to Male, while others are some distance away. The Maldives chain is 750 kilometres from north to south.

The resorts are provisioned largely by imports. Fish are caught locally and some fruit is grown but the majority of the food provided for the visitors and the resident population is flown in from India, Sri Lanka, and other places.

The majority of the Maldivian population has access to electricity. This power is generally provided by diesel generators operating on the islands and at the resorts.

An outline of our plan
The core of our scheme is:

• the replacement of fossil fuels for electricity generation, for cooking and for some transport
• the purchase and cancellation of EU emissions trading certificates to offset the importation of aviation fuel and small amounts of other fuels that cannot be otherwise be replaced.

Electricity generation
Reliable figures for the amount of electricity generated were not possible to find. Much electricity is generated at resorts and other points on the island by smaller generators and the output may not be measured.

We have estimated that over half the oil imported into the island is used for electricity. The electricity is used for homes and businesses and for the desalination of water. Smaller amounts are used for boats and other uses.

We believe that the total annual amount of electricity generated and consumed is about 540,000 mWh. As the Maldives economy grows, this figure will rise. We are also proposing that the country should gradually switch to the use of electricity for road and some sea transport and for cooking. (The climate of the islands means that no heating is ever required and air conditioning needs are currently quite limited.)

Our estimate of the current needs for electricity:[2]

Our proposal is to replace diesel use with a mixture of:

• wind energy
• solar PV
• biomass combustion in Male
• battery storage outside Male.

Large expenditures will also need to be made on electricity transmission networks.

Wind
Average wind speeds in the Maldives are reasonably high and quite consistent. Apart from the months of April and May, typical speeds are about 5 metres per second. (This compares with figures for central England of about 4.5 m/s.)

Average wind speeds in April and May are somewhat lower, at about 4 metres per second.

Our plan is to install enough wind turbines around the main islands to provide an expected annual electricity output of about 650,000 mWh. This exceeds the annual national requirements for electricity but because the wind does not blow at the same speed all the time, we will need additional generating capacity and electricity storage in reserve.

Our main assumptions are:

Most of the inhabited islands will be using wind power for the bulk of their electricity. In later paragraphs we will look at the need for storage of electricity to cover periods when the wind is not blowing strongly enough.

We have projected a typical cost of about $1,500 per installed kilowatt. Construction costs are likely to be moderate because of the ease of installing foundations in what we are told is coral limestone and sandstone.

Solar PV
The Maldives are close to the equator and receive high levels of insolation. We can rely on good output from solar PV, both as a supplement to wind power and as a source of electricity on islands far from wind turbines.

After taking advice from the Maldives, we assume that the best location for solar PV will be in the very shallow lagoons in the centre of the atolls. Farms of PV panels can be installed at reasonable cost at the edge of these lagoons.

Our main assumptions are stated below:

These panels supplement the power provided by wind. Each location outside Male will need some form of electricity storage.

We have been told that solar energy levels are reliable across the Maldives islands. Monsoon weather produces cloud, but there are very few days without any direct sun. Even in cloud, the Maldives are sufficiently close to the equator for modern PV panels to capture large amounts of solar energy.

We assume a full cost (including cabling and inverters) of about $550 per square metre of installed capacity. This is lower than current levels because of the expected continuing decline in solar panel prices and because of the large size of the typical installation.

The average day length does not vary much in the Maldives across the seasons. But to be useful solar installations will need to be accompanied by some form of electricity storage.

Biomass
A large fraction of the population lives in Male and nearby islands. For these areas, it makes sense to invest in a biomass combustion plant to provide backup when wind is not blowing and insufficient resources of sun are available.

We suggest a 50 mW plant, probably burning biomass wastes, such as coconut husks, some of which can be obtained locally and the remainder from Sri Lanka. We assume that the plant will provide an average output of about 20 mW. On an annual basis this equates to a production of 175,000 mWh, supplementing the electricity from wind and solar. We expect the cost of this plant to be about $50m, including installation. The cost of the biomass is expected to be about $20 a tonne and combustion efficiency about 35%. This implies an annual cost of about $5m.

Storage
We have budgeted for electricity storage equivalent to twelve hours’ typical use in the areas outside Male. (In Male, the backup is provided by the biomass plant.) We exclude desalination because these plants can cope with limited intermittency.

We propose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries similar to those used in the most recent electric cars, although several other electricity storage technologies are possible. Lithium ion batteries are reliable, have long lives, and are completely safe. However, they are expensive. Our total requirement for storage is about 630 mWh and we believe that this will cost $315m. (This is cheaper than current prices for small orders but we have obtained an estimate of target costs in the next few years from Valence, the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive power batteries.)

Each wind and solar installation will need backup power from the battery systems. Further research could demonstrate that other forms of energy storage, such as compressed air, might provide cheaper alternatives, and we would be interested in hearing details of such systems.

Electricity transmission
We have budgeted $100m for improvements in electricity transmission. We are told that the major population centres in the Maldives have electricity networks but a plan to switch to renewable sources will mean a need for new power distribution systems and for controls that maintain the voltage and frequency of AC distribution. Electricity will have to be taken from wind turbines and PV panel systems to local users. Our estimate is inevitably tentative but seems appropriately conservative at about $800-$1,000 per household.

Summary of renewable electricity generation, storage, and transmission
Our projections show the Maldives installing total renewable electricity generating capacity well in excess of total current need. This is partly to provide a margin of safety but also to meet increasing need for electricity supply for uses such as transportation. In addition, the majority of the existing diesel generators will be available to users in the event of temporary unavailability of electricity from the renewable sources.

The available electricity supply in this plan is almost twice the level of current need. This leaves substantial reserve for other uses, such as road transport and cooking, increased desalination, and widening the availability of electricity.

Other uses for diesel
We estimate that about 500 barrels a day of diesel are employed in other uses such as fuel for larger boats. This figure is tentative. In some circumstances, the fuel can be replaced by electricity. In other applications we will need to find alternatives which provide a low carbon liquid fuel. The best option at the moment which does not to involve the use of land that is used for growing food is jatropha oil, made from berries of a tropical shrub that grows on marginal land in places such as India. This is a temporary solution since all biofuels inevitably increase the pressure on the world’s productive lands. In the longer run, almost all diesel uses in the Maldives can be replaced by electricity.

Petrol/Gasoline
About 490 barrels a day of petrol are used in the Maldives for cars and for smaller craft such as the tourist speedboats used in water sports. Over the next decade, the worldwide process of replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric cars will move rapidly. Already we are seeing rapid innovation in batteries from companies such as Valence. Every major auto-maker in the world has announced plans to produce electrically propelled cars. The short distances and small number of roads make the Maldives an appropriate location for using battery-powered vehicles.

Batteries need to be charged. This can be done from any mains socket, but as part of this plan for carbon neutrality, we anticipate that the government will need to establish charging points around the main towns that allow vehicle owners to top up their batteries. Renewable energy is an effective way to supply electricity to batteries. Batteries can be recharged when power is abundant, such as during night-time gales, rather than at periods of maximum electricity use. Battery-using cars can thus help to balance demand and supply for electricity. A rapid switch to electric vehicles might therefore help reduce the high cost of electricity storage.

Not all cars can be replaced in the ten years of this plan. Some vehicles will still be using petrol by 2020, as will many boats. We anticipate catering for the demand for liquid fuels by using ethanol from Brazil or other low-carbon sources. (Brazilian ethanol is low-carbon because it is made from sugar cane. The sugar in the cane can easily be fermented into ethanol. The waste from the cane (bagasse) can be used to provide the heat needed for the process. Most studies describe Brazilian sugar cane ethanol as extremely low-carbon because of the ease of making the fuel from ingredients that have absorbed CO2 from the atmosphere. The debate about whether cultivating sugar for ethanol increases the pressure on the world’s limited resources of arable land will continue and we cannot avoid some scepticism about whether ethanol will ever be truly low-carbon. New technologies (usually known as ‘second-generation biofuels’) are likely to use agricultural wastes, such as otherwise unused tree branches and straw, and these biofuels will probably be able to claim very low-carbon status.)

Battery cars vary in price but will eventually be cheaper than petrol equivalents. Electricity will almost certainly be far cheaper than petrol for fuel. A push towards using only electric cars on the Maldives will reduce costs. We have not included this in our estimates in the summary section.

Kerosene – cooking
People on the islands largely use wood or kerosene for cooking fuel. For those homes and businesses using wood or other biomass for cooking, we suggest the introduction of new and highly efficient closed stoves. These stoves burn much smaller amounts of fuel than older types. This reduces the demand for fuel and decreases the pressure on local stores of wood. Homes and tourist hotels within the reach of the electricity system will need to have their stoves replaced with electric equivalents.

We are unable to estimate accurately the number of new stoves needed outside the Male area. A reasonable guess might be about 40,000. At a typical cost of $100 for simple stoves or electric rings, we believe the total bill will be about $4m.

Kerosene – aviation
After electricity generation, the most important source of carbon emissions on the Maldives is aviation fuel. We believe it is approximately 1,800 barrels of oil a day. To be clear, this amount of jet kerosene is not sufficient to provide fuel for the whole of the return journeys of all the international flights coming into Male airport. (In recent days, our check shows that about 8 long distance flights arrive in the Maldives every day.) Most aircraft seem to travel through Colombo, Sri Lanka and may be fully refuelled there, either on the outbound or incoming legs of the return flight.

Although the oil of the jatropha bush may provide a long-term replacement for kerosene, airlines have no current alternative to using fossil fuels. The Maldives economy is reliant on tourism so the country will need to continue to import aviation fuel.

Our proposal is therefore to offset the CO2 emissions from aviation by purchasing emissions certificates from the EU trading system. EU countries have all been allocated a restricted number of allowances (or ‘permits to pollute’). These allowances are traded on a number of exchanges in Europe. The buying and selling of carbon allowances set the price for carbon dioxide emissions in Europe.

By buying and then cancelling emissions permits, the Maldives is decreasing the total volume of emissions allowed in Europe. Its purchases will therefore slightly raise the equilibrium price for CO2 in Europe from its currently depressed level of about €10-€12 per tonne. Raising the price in the EU permit system is important because it increases the incentives on the major polluters, such as power stations, to use lower-carbon technologies.

We need to offset about 270,000 tonnes of CO2 per year to cover the emissions from aviation kerosene landed on the islands. The current cost of this is about $4m but the price varies daily.

We also propose that the Maldives offset any remaining emissions, such as those that arise when diesel generators have to be used because of the lack of wind and sun in the areas that cannot be powered by the Male biomass combustion plant. We propose allocating a total annual cost of $3m for this purpose, making a total offset cost of about $7m.

Methane emissions
Small quantities of methane (a potent global warming gas) are emitted from landfilled organic waste on the Maldives. Methane is given off when carbon-based molecules rot in the absence of the oxygen in air. One estimate suggests that the effect of this might be equivalent to about 20% of the total CO2 output of the islands.

We believe that the best way to avoid these methane emissions is probably to separate organic materials (food, other waste vegetable matter, woody materials) from other forms of waste, such as plastics and metal. The organic material should then be carefully composted and then added to the very thin local soils as a conditioner. With appropriate additions of fertility-raising compounds, this will increase the ability of the Maldives to grow food for its rapidly increasing population.

We estimate the cost of widespread installation of simple composting equipment to be about $6m. (There are about 250 inhabited islands. Composting equipment on 100 of the largest, at a price per unit of $50,000, would cost $5m. The main unit in Male might be an extra $1m.)

A summary of the costs and savings
We assume that all fuel and energy prices remain the same. So, for example, if electricity is priced at 20 US cents per kilowatt hour, the price will stay at this level. The financial effect of the carbon neutrality plan will therefore arise from:

• the equipment needed to decarbonise electricity generation – e.g. wind turbines
• the extra cost of lower-carbon products such cooking stoves. These can also be regarded as capital costs
• the annual cost of offsetting the emissions from imported aviation fuel
• the reduction in the oil import bill, a continuing benefit to the islands. We have assumed that the import cost of refined oil products, including the cost of transport to the islands, adds $10 a barrel to the standard cost of crude oil, which is currently trading at about $45.

Yearly costs and savings

Savings – two scenarios

What can we take from this financial analysis? If oil prices remain at $45 a barrel ($55 for refined products) then the costs of carbon neutrality are high and would not easily meet the standard tests of financial viability. For a country with a GDP of less than £2bn, the bills are large. But at $110 for a barrel of refined products the gains from reducing the use of fossil fuel are great enough to make the proposals financially attractive.

Crucial to the plan is the near-complete decarbonisation of electricity generation over a period of about 10 years. This will be the single most important switch in other countries as well, although it will take far longer in countries like Britain.

(This material accompanies Duncan Clark’s article ‘Maldives first to go carbon neutral’ in the Observer on Sunday 15 March 2009.)



Footnotes
[1] Mark Lynas and Chris Goodall will receive no payment of any form for this work.
[2] These estimates are necessarily imprecise. But they are unlikely to underestimate current electricity use because otherwise electricity production would use an implausibly large fraction of total diesel imports.
[3] This is about 0.15% of UK electricity production, and approximately a third of the figure per head in the UK.
[4] This assumes a small continuing improvement in typical efficiency for standard silicon panels. The Maldives could decide to invest in lower efficiency thin film panels which are considerably cheaper.